End of the shutdown
Last Wednesday was marked by anticipation of an important political and economic event – the end of the shutdown. There was no doubt that the longest period of "mismanagement" in U.S. history was about to end. The mere fact that this unpleasant process had come to a close certainly gave the market participants an extra boost of optimism. However, this happened only after the final bell, when U.S. President Donald Trump signed the bill that ended the longest government shutdown in history, following a scheduled dinner with Jamie Dimon and top executives from Wall Street.
The end of the 43-day government shutdown is expected to lead to the resumption of the publication of key data used by investors and policymakers to assess the state of the U.S. economy. However, it remains unclear how quickly full operations of government services and functions can be restored. It’s important to understand that, at this moment, the release of macroeconomic data is a top priority on the market agenda, and the employment report will likely be one of the first indicators in this series. Investors are anticipating that it may support market sentiment regarding further rate cuts, following the weak figures observed in recent private surveys.
Nevertheless, yesterday’s trading session was marked by the end of the shutdown. And unexpectedly, the usually lagging blue-chip index, the Dow Jones, impressed with a solid gain of 0.68%, and most importantly, for the 17th time this year, it reached a new historical high. The other two leading U.S. indexes ended the day with more modest results. While the broad-market S&P 500 managed to show some growth (although a symbolic 0.06%), the NASDAQ Composite, which tracks high-tech companies, slightly gave up ground and lost a third of a percent (0.28%). This confirms the trend of recent days, with some investors disappointed in the stocks of companies linked to high technologies and artificial intelligence.
A similar black-and-white picture was observed in the ITS family of indexes, where the ITS World (ITSW) index of global companies dropped by 0.41% over the day, while the ITS Shariah (ITSS) index managed to gain 1.29%. It’s worth noting that the growth of the latter was largely driven by the rapid rise in the stock prices of one of the leading tech companies, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD). AMD shares rose by 9% on Wednesday after the artificial intelligence (AI) chipmaker presented a promising growth trajectory for investors at its Financial Analyst Day event.
AMD, one of the leading semiconductor developers, forecasts annual revenue growth of more than 35% over the next three to five years, driven by an annual 60% growth in its data center business. The upcoming Helios systems, equipped with the MI450 GPUs featuring larger memory, will deliver high performance for hyperscalers and other clients starting in the third quarter of 2026. AMD also plans to capture more than half of the server processor market, increasing its share from the current 40% thanks to strong sales of its powerful EPYC processors.
Additionally, AMD expects its adjusted operating margin to increase to 35%, compared to around 24% today, as it scales up. In turn, management sees a path to earnings per share exceeding $20. As we can see, these numbers are quite optimistic, and, of course, they have inspired investors to make new purchases of AMD stock.
Overall, it can be said that the market remains fairly calm and moderately optimistic. The indexes continue to move upward, slowly but steadily. Investors are ready to face Thanksgiving in two weeks, which, as it seems, will be a defining moment for the direction of the market for the rest of the year.
Market expectations for November 13, 2025
Thursday's trading opens on a positive note. Stock markets are broadly in the green. To be honest, the growth isn't very large, but it's steady enough, with global stock indices gaining about 0.3–0.5% on average today.
Much of this positivity is tied to the same factor – President Donald Trump signing a spending package that will bring an end to the long-standing shutdown. Investors are preparing for a stream of macroeconomic data that was delayed due to the government shutdown, although the White House has already warned that key October indicators may not be published at all.
Another positive moment of the day came with the quarterly earnings report released yesterday after the market close by the iconic tech company Cisco Systems (CSCO). Immediately following the release of the report, Cisco's stock surged by more than 6%. Investors were pleased not only with the company's financial results, but also with the forecasts shared by the management during the subsequent press conference.
Betting on a sharp increase in demand for equipment needed for the massive expansion of data centers driven by the AI boom, the California-based company's management stated that it expects revenue for the 2026 fiscal year to range from $60.2 billion to $61 billion, compared to previous forecasts of $59 billion to $60 billion. At the same time, the adjusted earnings per share for the year are expected to be between $4.08 and $4.14, up from the earlier estimate of $4.00 to $4.06.
Cisco, whose financial results for the first quarter exceeded Wall Street's expectations, is also forecasting that revenue from AI infrastructure will reach $3 billion this year.
Naturally, such optimistic forecasts were reflected not only in the rise of Cisco's stock price but also had a positive impact on the leading U.S. indices, especially the NASDAQ. By Thursday morning, futures for the NASDAQ had gained several tenths of a percent.
Whether this optimism will be enough to sustain the main trading session remains unclear, but there is still a chance for moderate market growth.
After the main trading session ends, quarterly earnings from another iconic company, eagerly awaited by investors, will be released. This report coming from leading semiconductor equipment supplier Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT). Just like with Cisco, investors are expecting very strong results, and these expectations are likely to continue supporting the market. Nevertheless, it’s wise not to expect too much of a surge in growth at the moment.
The market is likely to move upward, if at all, in small steps – slowly and steadily. At the moment, what we’re seeing is not so much growth, as it is a phase of consolidation at current levels. All the indexes have risen too high this year, and the fear of losing what has been gained is clearly weighing on market participants. So, we’re taking our time and... digging in.