ITSW dynamics for 09.01.2025
After Wednesday’s trading session, it’s safe to say that the new year of 2025 is fully underway. First, the so-called Santa Rally period has officially ended (though, unfortunately, it didn’t happen this time). Second, the first five trading days of the year are behind us – a period often seen as an indicator of market sentiment and potential trends for the months ahead. Unlike the lacklustre Santa Rally, there’s a glimmer of positivity here: the S&P 500, the main gauge of the US market, rose by 0.62% during this time (the gain is modest but it’s still a rise – better than a decline).
Third, market participants faced the release of the first set of significant macroeconomic data for the year. To be honest, getting through these announcements – including the ADP report on new jobs and the “minutes” from the Federal Reserve’s December FOMC meeting – wasn’t easy. The job numbers fell short of expectations, while the minutes added uncertainty for those hoping for further easing of the Fed’s monetary policy. As a result, Wednesday’s trading session was highly volatile and tense across all indexes tracking the US market. Yet, as is often the case, it all ended in true American style – with a happy ending. By the close, the indexes showed minimal changes: a slight gain for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones and a similarly small loss for the NASDAQ Composite.
The same goes for the ITSW World Index (ITSW), which dipped by just 0.13% on the day. Most of this minor decline came from auto stocks, particularly China’s Li Auto (LI, -2.93%) and Europe’s Stellantis N.V. (STLA, -2.59%), both of which have struggled since the start of the year. This negativity overshadowed the gains from standout performers like Spotify Technology (SPOT, +3.41%) – a stock with a distinctly festive New Year’s vibe – and healthcare giants Eli Lilly (LLY, +1.94%) and UnitedHealth (UNH, +1.89%). Adding to the positivity was Kazakhstan’s NK KazMunayGas AO (KMG, +2.49%), which benefitted from rising global gas prices and showed solid early-year performance. Unsurprisingly, shares of this Kazakh economic leader have gained over 30% in the past year.
Overall, the results of the first trading days of 2025 can be described as neutral. Nothing bad has happened, which is already a good sign, but there hasn’t been much positivity either. This, however, is understandable. Many investors are holding back until 20 January, when Donald Trump assumes the US presidency. Only then can we expect livelier trading sessions and more impressive market moves.