Everyone’s riding the hype

So close – but not quite. Yesterday came with the hope of new all-time highs (ATH) for both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite, yet neither index managed to break through. They came within touching distance of their record levels, just a fraction away, but ultimately fell short. Even so, the session can still be considered a success – few expected all the main indexes to gain around 1% by the close.

It all started quietly – and frankly, it was already a relief that markets opened in the green rather than the red. Investor sentiment was dampened by Q1 GDP data. You’d think the third estimate would be a formality, unlikely to bring surprises. However, the numbers came in well below expectations: instead of the forecast 0.2% growth, U.S. GDP shrank by 0.5%. Luckily, the market reaction was restrained – the data only slightly cooled the cautious optimism that had followed the end of the Iran-Israel conflict.

From a modest start near flat levels, the indexes began to climb steadily throughout the day. With no fresh negative headlines, investors gradually gained confidence and kept pushing the market higher. The approach of historical highs also provided an extra psychological boost. But just a few hours before the closing bell, the rally stalled as the market hit a familiar psychological ceiling. As so often happens, it proved too tough to break through before the final bell.

In the end, the indexes posted solid gains – though still closed just below their all-time peaks. The day’s top performer was the NASDAQ Composite, which rose by 0.97%, missing a new ATH by just 6 points, or 0.03%. The Dow Jones (DJIA-30) was up 0.94%, and the benchmark S&P 500 gained 0.80%, finishing just 3 points (0.05%) shy of its February high.

The upbeat mood was reflected in sector performance: 9 out of 11 ended the day in the green. Only the defensive segments – Consumer Defensive and Real Estate – remained under slight pressure, falling 0.13% and 0.02% respectively. In contrast, commodity-related stocks led the way. A weaker dollar helped push commodity prices higher, and the sector gained an average of 1.88%. Mining giants Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) and Southern Copper (SCCO) stood out, with their shares rising by 6.8% and 7.8% respectively. Both companies are listed on the ITS platform and are available to investors in Kazakhstan.

The ITS family of indexes also continues to please. Particularly strong was the ITS Shariah Index (ITSS), which hit a new all-time high for the third straight day. It closed at 1296.71, up 0.64%, just short of the symbolic 1300 mark. Its peer, the ITS World Index (ITSW), posted an even stronger gain of 1.04%, though also fell just 3 points short of a record. New highs across the board are clearly within reach.

Another point of interest was the day’s list of top gainers. In recent sessions, leading tech names had dominated, but this time they moved slightly into the background – although they still held their ground among the top stocks. Yesterday, industrial and commodity players took the lead. Notably, the top three performers in the record-breaking ITSS index were not from the tech sector. At the top: industrial heavyweight Caterpillar (CAT), industrial services player Uber Technologies (UBER), and medical equipment manufacturer Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG).

What does this tell us? Most importantly, it shows that investor demand is now reaching beyond the tech sector and spreading across the wider market. That is clearly a positive signal, reinforcing hopes that the current rally may well continue.

 

 

Market outlook for 27 June 2025

Friday may be the last working day of the week, but that doesn’t mean it will be an easy one. On the contrary, markets are bracing for a packed session, with key macroeconomic data expected to set the tone for the day.

Still, the outlook is far from bleak. Optimism continues to prevail among investors – and has even gained ground slightly. There are several reasons for that. First, reports suggest that U.S.-China trade talks are moving in a positive direction, with both sides reportedly close to finalising a deal. Double cheers – if that proves true.

Second, there are rumours that Trump is prepared to extend the delay on new tariffs, currently set to take effect in early July. This issue has been weighing on market participants, and a positive decision could significantly lift investor sentiment.

Third, corporate earnings. This time, Nike (NKE) made headlines with a strong set of quarterly results. But what really pleased both investors and analysts was the company’s announcement that it will partially shift production from China to the U.S. – a move aimed at reducing the risk from potential tariff hikes. It’s a big step, considering that around 16% of all footwear imported into the U.S. is currently made in China. Investors responded with enthusiasm: Nike shares jumped nearly 10% in pre-market trading after the announcement.

All of this sets the scene for today’s trading. But there’s more. One hour before the opening bell, the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index will be released – the Fed’s preferred inflation measure.

Inflation in May is expected to match April’s levels. On the one hand, this isn’t particularly reassuring – there’s no sign of a slowdown. On the other, there’s no need to panic either, as price growth isn’t accelerating. In short – it’s a mixed picture, as is often the case. The key now is for the actual data to align with analyst expectations.

As traders await these developments, hope remains for a favourable outcome and strong macro data. That’s why U.S. futures opened confidently in the green this morning, up around 0.2-0.3%.

If everything goes according to plan and there are no nasty surprises, this week could well end on a high – with firm gains and potentially a wave of new all-time highs.