Shutdown came to your door
The past week closed with a modest decline but did little to dent investor sentiment. September, which many market participants had feared, is ending and is turning out better than expected. Fortunately, there was no correction, and the indexes continued to climb, regularly hitting new all-time highs.
Nevertheless, the past five days broke a three-week winning streak. The Dow Jones index fell by 0.15%, while the NASDAQ Composite, which tracks tech stocks, dropped 0.65%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500, the main benchmark for the U.S. stock market, lost a modest 0.31% during this time.
The main reason markets paused their rally and slipped slightly lies in two areas: technically, the market looks overheated, and investors are reassessing the outlook for further Fed rate cuts. In any case, the pause was needed to release pressure and cool the momentum after the sharp gains of recent weeks.
There are a few interesting corporate developments to highlight. First, Intel (INTC) continues to impress investors – its stock was the top performer in the S&P 500 this week, rising nearly 17%. The surge in demand came after news that the chipmaker is seeking investment from Apple (AAPL). Intel already has support from the government and Nvidia (NVDA), and if Apple comes on board, it will provide a significant boost to the company’s growth.
Another highlight of the week was video game producer Electronic Arts (EA). On Friday, reports surfaced that the company plans to repurchase $50 billion worth of its shares and go private. The announcement sent its stock up 15%, though the outlook beyond that remains unclear.
One of the biggest losers last week was copper miner Freeport-McMoRan (FCX). Its shares plunged more than 20% in just two days after reports of force majeure at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia. Analysts now forecast a decline in both copper and gold sales.
Overall, the market remains calm, with trading resembling a technical consolidation at current levels. A break in the rally was inevitable, and that is what has occurred. The encouraging part is that it is only a pause, not a more significant correction.
Market outlook for 29 September 2025
The coming week is significant as it closes the month, the quarter and the fiscal year for U.S. government agencies. Once 30 September passes, investors will be able to assess the results of the latest reporting period.
It's also worth noting that the Chinese market is heading into a week-long holiday, which will leave investors without some important benchmarks.
That covers the early part of the week. From Wednesday, however, market attention will shift to labor market data. ADP will release its private payroll report midweek, followed on Friday by official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) figures on unemployment and job creation across the U.S. economy. These reports are especially important as investors weigh the Fed’s next moves in monetary policy, with the data serving as a key input for interest rate decisions.
In addition, the prospect of a U.S. government shutdown could weigh on markets, as it may delay the release of employment data.
Lawmakers in Congress are currently facing the looming deadline for funding the U.S. government. They must pass the new budget bill before the end of the fiscal year on Tuesday. Otherwise, the federal government will enter its 15th partial shutdown since 1981.
Leaders of both parties are due to meet President Donald Trump at the White House on Monday to discuss the matter. In an interview with Reuters over the weekend, Trump said he had the «impression» that Democrats may still be open to reaching a funding agreement.
Earnings season remains on pause, with more than two weeks to go before it officially begins. Still, several key reports are scheduled this week. On Monday, before the opening bell, Carnival Corp (CCL), one of the world’s largest cruise operators, will release its results. Expectations are high, as many consumers, cautious about economic uncertainty, continue to favor cruises over land-based holidays. This trend boosted Carnival’s second-quarter 2025 profitability to its highest level in nearly two decades.
On Tuesday, after the market closes, Nike (NKE) will report on earnings, offering an important gauge of conditions across the broader retail sector.
The overall market outlook on Monday morning can be considered quite optimistic. With the markets in China and Hong Kong on holiday, most other global markets are in the green. It's more of a light green, though, as growth is under 0.5%. This includes both Europe and futures for major U.S. indices. But even a modest gain is still a positive sign. At the same time, investor sentiment will be primarily influenced by the approval (or rejection) of the U.S. government funding bill, followed by labor market data expected on Wednesday.