New Year’s new records

The new year got off to a quick start, and the market, shaking off the shackles of the old year, once again moved higher. While the first days of January still had a bit of a post‑holiday hangover and prices even tried to pull back slightly, optimism and hopes for an imminent start to earnings season soon took over, sending prices sharply higher. By the end of the first ten days, all major U.S. indexes had either set new all‑time highs, as the Dow Jones (DJIA) and S&P 500 did, or were trading close to them (Nasdaq Composite). The Dow performed best of all, managing to gain a solid 3% from the start of the year.

It should also be noted that it wasn’t just the U.S. that started the year on a strong footing. Other international markets also looked quite solid after the first few trading days. This is reflected in the performance of the global companies index ITS World (ITSW), which, like its U.S. peers, began the year by setting new record highs, reaching 1,560.1 points with a gain of 1.87% since January 1.

The Islamic equities index ITS Shariah (ITSS), however, has added only symbolically over the same period – just 0.14%. The main reason for such modest growth is that, in the early days of the new year, demand rotated away from technology stocks (which make up the core of the ITSS index) toward commodity and industrial names. Resource companies performed especially well, rising nearly 6% on average over the first ten days. It is worth noting, though, that this move was driven largely by strong demand for shares of precious metals miners (primarily Newmont Corporation) and copper producers (Freeport‑McMoRan).

As for technology, solid demand persisted only for chip designers and manufacturers (Intel (INTC), Micron Technology (MU), and Microchip Technology (MCHP)), as well as for makers of semiconductor equipment such as Lam Research (LRCX).

And when talking about technology, it is impossible to ignore the standout star of 2025 – SanDisk (SNDK). Its stock was hands down the top performer in the S&P 500 over 2025, gaining 577% during the year. And, as the first days of the new year have shown, demand for these shares is not letting up: in just the past week alone, they have added another 54%. Simply fantastic.

There is still no clear explanation in the market for why this is happening, and one can only point to the comments of Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang, who stressed at CES 2026 that demand for AI data‑storage systems today far exceeds available supply – and that this creates a unique edge for companies like SanDisk: being a supplier in a market with insatiable demand.

So, the year in equities has clearly started on a positive note. Talk of an overbought market that was so common in December has already faded into the background. If the new earnings season gets off to a strong start, there is every reason to expect further upside for the market as a whole and, naturally, fresh all‑time highs for the major indexes.

 

 

Market expectations for January 12, 2026

This week will be especially important for determining the market’s outlook. It will matter on all fronts – both in terms of macroeconomic data releases and a new wave of corporate earnings reports.

Macroeconomic numbers will be more important than ever. With the shutdown finally over, inflation data will at last be released on time and without delays. On Tuesday, consumer inflation figures (CPI) are due, and on Wednesday we’ll get retail sales data along with producer inflation (PPI). Taken together, these will give a snapshot of the U.S. economy heading into the holidays and will naturally feed into expectations for the pace of further rate cuts. This would undoubtedly be the main event of the week, if not for the start of the new earnings season.

Starting Tuesday, the biggest banks begin reporting, with results set to come in a steady stream through the end of the week. The outlook is positive, but – as is well known – bank earnings can be tricky and may bring plenty of surprises, both pleasant and not so much. Still, there is reason for optimism. If everything goes smoothly, there is a real chance of seeing a historic milestone this week: the S&P 500 reaching the 7 000 mark and the blue-chip Dow Jones pushing past 50 000.

To get there, however, the market will also have to overcome the political headwinds that emerged over the weekend. Trump wouldn't be Trump if he didn't once again create fresh challenges for the stock market. On Monday morning, investors were seriously rattled by news that the U.S. Department of Justice had opened a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell over his testimony in Congress last summer regarding the Fed building reconstruction project.

Market participants reacted nervously, and futures on the major U.S. indexes immediately moved lower, dropping as much as 1% from Friday’s close. In response, Powell said that “this is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions – or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation.” It is clear to everyone that such a move could have long-term implications for the Fed’s independence. How investors will trade against this backdrop today, however, is still uncertain.

Even so, it seems that positive sentiment remains strong for now, and there is still no real talk of a market reversal.