All quiet on the Baghdad front

Judging by the news flow of the past few days, last week should have delivered at least some notable results – but didn’t. Even though market participants clearly tried to rock the boat, what we ended up seeing was both a new all-time high for the Dow Jones Index and the strongest (relatively speaking, of course) two-day decline since October 10, 2025.

However, overall, despite all this drama, the market essentially went nowhere, and the weekly index moves were minimal. The blue-chip Dow Jones gained 0.34% over the week. The main benchmark of the U.S. equity market, the S&P 500, was virtually unchanged, adding just 0.08%. Only the high-tech NASDAQ Composite slipped slightly, falling 0.45%. Incidentally, the latter reflects the current trend quite well: investor sentiment toward artificial intelligence has somewhat cooled, and we are seeing a gradual rotation out of the biggest technology names.

In recent days, investors have indeed been worried about the potential pace of rate cuts and the overly expensive valuations of the big-tech names operating in the AI space – companies that have accounted for a significant share of the U.S. stock market growth in recent years.

Expectations that the Fed will cut rates at its December meeting clearly weakened last week, amid signs of persistent inflation partly driven by President Donald Trump’s global tariff policy. According to CME-traded FedWatch futures, the probability of a 25-basis-point cut in December has already dropped below 50%, down from 67% just two weeks earlier.

Among the positive developments of the past week, one can definitely point to the end of the longest shutdown in U.S. history and the resumption of government funding. This means investors will finally be able to track macroeconomic data on time again – and make more informed investment decisions.

As for the ITS index family, their weekly performance was mixed. Although, much like their U.S. counterparts, they barely moved away from the zero line. The ITS World Index (ITSW), which tracks global companies, fared slightly worse, losing 0.17% over the week. Meanwhile the ITS Shariah Index (ITSS) emerged as the strongest among all indexes reflecting U.S. equity dynamics, gaining almost a full percent – 0.85%.

Overall, as we can see, the shifts here are hardly impressive enough to justify any far-reaching conclusions. The market appears to have entered a cooling phase: we’re seeing sideways trading around current levels and an attempt to consolidate near recent highs. It’s entirely possible that this situation will persist right up to Thanksgiving – after which Black Friday and Cyber Monday will follow, and their results will likely determine our next steps.

 

 

Market expectations for November 17, 2025

The coming week promises to be very interesting from every angle.
First, we’ll finally see the release of macroeconomic data after a month and a half pause, caused by the shutdown. Last week’s brief fall has ended, clearing the way for new employment and inflation figures from the world’s largest economy. One of the most important releases in the days ahead will be the September U.S. jobs report (and yes, we’re already in November!), which is scheduled for Thursday. But whether we will get a similar report for October remains unclear: statements from the White House suggest that the October data may be, at the very least, significantly limited.

In any case, the key point is that this data will likely influence how the Fed approaches its final rate decision in December. The Fed cut rates at its two previous meetings but concerns that the central bank is essentially operating blind, without up-to-date economic indicators, have led market participants to believe that the FOMC will keep borrowing costs unchanged next month.

Another major event of the coming week will undoubtedly be the quarterly earnings release from Nvidia (NVDA), the world’s largest company by market capitalization. The results, set to be published after the market close on Wednesday, may prove even more significant for investors than the U.S. jobs report itself.

Since the launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT in late 2022, Nvidia’s share price has surged by roughly 1,000%. This made the company the first ever to surpass a market valuation of $5 trillion and turned its earnings into a key bellwether – one capable of influencing the current, rather tense, investor sentiment surrounding AI.

Given the stretched valuations and a series of cyclical deals in the tech sector, many of them linked to Nvidia’s cutting-edge chips, some observers are becoming increasingly concerned about the possibility of a bubble forming in this space.

In addition to Nvidia, several home-goods retailers and major retail chains will report earnings this week, offering potential insight into the outlook for the upcoming holiday shopping season ahead of Christmas and New Year’s. Well-known companies such as Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD) and Target (TGT) are all set to publish their latest financial results in the coming days.

As for market sentiment on Monday, it can be described as moderately positive. Futures on the major U.S. indices were posting modest gains during the morning session – rising from 0.5% (S&P 500 futures) to 0.9% (NASDAQ-100 futures). Investor sentiment improved largely thanks to signs that U.S. President Donald Trump may be softening his stance on broad tariff measures. After the market closed on Friday, the White House announced tariff reductions on a number of food products. At the same time, President Trump emphasized the need to address the issue of affordability for these goods, acknowledging that prices for certain products such as beef, fruit, and coffee are a "bit inflated".

In addition, the news that the United States and Switzerland have reached an agreement to reduce tariffs on exports from the Alpine nation from 39% to 15%, in exchange for $200 billion in U.S. investments by the end of 2028, was clearly received positively.

As we can see, for now everything points toward growth. Perhaps modest, but fairly steady. However, it’s too early to celebrate. The main events of the week are still ahead of us (the macro data releases and Nvidia’s quarterly earnings), and those are exactly what will set the tone for market sentiment.