Sleep well, dear investor
The past week was another clear victory for the bulls. Driven by renewed hype around artificial intelligence and expectations of interest rate cuts, indexes kept climbing rapidly. The NASDAQ Composite set fresh record highs every day and eventually broke through the 22,000 mark.
The flagship U.S. benchmark, the S&P 500, was less steady but still showed confidence, briefly touching 6,600 points and ending the week up 1.59%. The Dow, true to form, lagged behind, though the gap was modest. Its weekly gain of 0.95% was only slightly below the NASDAQ Composite’s 1.02%.
So far, September has not lived up to the fears of sceptics who, at the start of the month, pointed to its history as the weakest period for equities and warned of declines. In practice, nothing of the sort has happened.
The ITS indexes also impressed. In fact, last week was something of a breakthrough, as both significantly outperformed their U.S. counterparts. The ITS World Index (ITSW), tracking global companies, rose more than 2% (+2.15%), while the ITS Shariah Index (ITSS) surged over 4% (+4.13%). Both repeatedly set record highs and came close to the psychologically important 1,500-point threshold.
Technology stocks were the clear leaders, with the sector gaining more than 3% (+3.38%). Oracle (ORCL) stole the show: its shares at one point jumped nearly 36% following a strong quarterly report and bullish management comments on its market position and AI ambitions.
Oracle’s stellar results not only reignited the AI rally but also lifted leading chipmakers – Micron Technology (MU) climbed 23% over the week – along with energy companies powering the world’s largest data centres. NRG Energy (NRG) and Vistra Corp (VST) both gained more than 10%.
The positive tone extended across most sectors, with the exceptions of healthcare (-0.65%) and consumer staples (-0.02%). It was a particularly tough week for pharmaceuticals, which came under renewed pressure after reports that Donald Trump’s team intended to link child mortality to COVID vaccinations. Vaccine makers were hit hardest: Pfizer (PFE) fell nearly 4% and Moderna (MRNA) almost 8%.
Nevertheless, market sentiment remains upbeat. Despite mounting talk of a potential bubble, investors continue to bet on further gains and are eagerly awaiting the upcoming FOMC meeting later this week.
Market outlook for 15 september 2025
This week is set to be a crucial one for determining the market’s next direction. The central event is the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. The rate decision will be announced on Wednesday at 23:00 Astana time. Markets currently put the probability of a 0.25% rate cut at 94%. Few doubt that outcome – the real focus, as always, will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at the press conference that follows.
Retail sales data, due on Tuesday, will also be closely watched. Yet with the Fed decision looming, it is unlikely to move markets in a meaningful way. Relative calm is expected until Wednesday evening, after which a spike in volatility and profit-taking looks increasingly likely.
Investors are also keeping a close eye on U.S.-China trade talks, which began on Sunday in Madrid. The outcome remains uncertain, but many analysts believe the agenda will inevitably include TikTok. Under current rules, if ByteDance does not sell the short-video app by 17 September, TikTok faces a ban in the U.S.
The broader market picture after the weekend shows little change. Global indexes opened the week mostly higher. Europe is in the green almost across the board, apart from the UK, where the FTSE 100 is flat. Asia is also positive, led by Japan’s Nikkei 225, which gained nearly 1% (+0.89%) from Friday’s close.
Futures on major U.S. indexes are likewise holding around the zero line, doing their best not to unsettle investors. For now, the mood is calm – but only until the first jolt. And, as noted, that is expected on Wednesday. All eyes are on that moment.